EffectEffect typeEffect directionLevel of analysisMeasurement quality
3,917 to 5,205 voters per cycle, Cycles 1 to 5Behavior or practice changePositiveIndividual, CommunityVerified
Youth cast 18% of Cycle 1 votes, 34% of Cycle 2Behavior or practice changePositiveIndividual, CommunityVerified
White, older, female residents over-representedBehavior or practice changeMixed or unintendedCommunityVerified
Asian, Hispanic, non-native English speakers under-representedBehavior or practice changeNegativeCommunityVerified
Online voting widened the representation gapBehavior or practice changeMixed or unintendedCommunityVerified
48 projects, about $9.8 million funded, Cycles 1 to 6Material or project outcomePositiveCommunityVerified
Street repair won funding in every cycle, 1 to 6Material or project outcomePositiveCommunityVerified
Pavement Condition Index up 10 points, 2014 to 2015Material or project outcomePositiveCommunityClaimed
$180,000 GVRD match on the parks projectMaterial or project outcomePositiveOrganizationalVerified
Delegates gained civic knowledge, contacts, volunteering intentCapacity builtPositiveIndividual, InterpersonalVerified
86% of voters, 93% of delegates want PB to continueRelationships and trustPositiveIndividual, CommunityVerified
Restored pride and trust in the post-bankruptcy CityRelationships and trustPositiveCommunity, CulturalClaimed
New two-way channel between residents and City HallRelationships and trustPositiveInterpersonal, OrganizationalTestified
Residents treat part of the budget as theirs to shapeMental model emergedPositiveIndividual, CulturalTestified
Council approved every winning slate, Cycles 1 to 6Institutional or policy changePositiveOrganizational, SocietalVerified
City built in-house PB staff and grant proceduresCapacity builtPositiveOrganizationalVerified
Demand for Steering Committee seats roseCapacity builtPositiveCommunity, OrganizationalVerified
Cycle 2 vetting outcry nearly derailed the voteRelationships and trustNegativeInterpersonal, OrganizationalTestified
Five Cycle 1 projects unfinished after two yearsMaterial or project outcomeNegativeCommunity, OrganizationalVerified
Help the Homeless: $588,000 unspent 18 months onMaterial or project outcomeNegativeCommunityVerified
Three Cycle 1 projects redesigned to satisfy public-funds lawBehavior or practice changeMixed or unintendedOrganizationalVerified
Street maintenance came to lean on PB allocationsInstitutional or policy changeMixed or unintendedOrganizationalTestified
Assembly cost per attendee fell from $27 to $9Behavior or practice changePositiveOrganizationalVerified
National awards and press (Putnam 2014, Harvard Top 10 2015)Narrative or cultural shiftPositiveOrganizational, SocietalVerified
Other cities sought the model; SF supervisor set aside $100,000Narrative or cultural shiftPositiveSocietalTestified
Maker’s note · curator

Turnout held where other US processes fell: 3,917 voters in Cycle 1 (3.4 percent of population, 6 percent of adults, against 1.3 percent in Chicago and 1.9 percent in New York), 3,750 in Cycle 2, 3,098 in Cycle 3, 4,216 in Cycle 4 and a peak of 5,205 in Cycle 5; the City counted over 5,000 residents engaged in Cycle 1 and over 15,000 across three cycles. The vote favored citywide, broad-benefit projects: 12 projects for $3.28 million in Cycle 1 (streets $550,000, lighting, parks at 13 sites, STEAM labs, scholarships, community gardens, small business grants, spay and neuter, senior center, Boys and Girls Club gym, 150 cameras), 8 for $2.44 million in Cycle 2 (led by Help the Homeless and $1 million of repaving), 5 for $1 million in Cycle 3 (two youth programs, a waterfront park, iPads for after-school programs, school roads), 4 in Cycle 4 (streets, 9-1-1 dispatch equipment, parks, pet neutering), all 10 ballot proposals in Cycle 5 with the last partially funded, and 9 of 12 in Cycle 6 (police radios $270,000, bike and street safety $300,000, seven services from foster youth to Meals on Wheels). Streets won every cycle, and by Cycle 5 Public Works credited PB money for a 10-point rise in pavement condition and a regional award. Participants' own gains were measured in Cycle 1: delegates knew more people afterwards, were likelier to volunteer and answered civic questions better, and 86 percent of voters and 93 percent of delegates wanted PB to continue. The costs showed in delivery: with thin vetting in Cycle 1 some projects took a year to contract, five were incomplete two years later, scholarships, business grants and the spay clinic had to be redesigned as open application and voucher schemes to avoid gifting public funds, and the top Cycle 2 project, Help the Homeless, had spent nothing 18 months after approval because its partner lacked capacity and half the budget assumed county money that never came. Trust effects are the least measured: the City's reports and ballots assert restored pride and a new forum for productive exchange, Chapin's interviewees felt the public was more receptive, and the Cycle 2 vetting episode shows how quickly that goodwill could turn.

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