| Effect | Effect type | Effect direction | Level of analysis | Measurement quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,917 to 5,205 voters per cycle, Cycles 1 to 5 | Behavior or practice change | Positive | Individual, Community | Verified |
| Youth cast 18% of Cycle 1 votes, 34% of Cycle 2 | Behavior or practice change | Positive | Individual, Community | Verified |
| White, older, female residents over-represented | Behavior or practice change | Mixed or unintended | Community | Verified |
| Asian, Hispanic, non-native English speakers under-represented | Behavior or practice change | Negative | Community | Verified |
| Online voting widened the representation gap | Behavior or practice change | Mixed or unintended | Community | Verified |
| 48 projects, about $9.8 million funded, Cycles 1 to 6 | Material or project outcome | Positive | Community | Verified |
| Street repair won funding in every cycle, 1 to 6 | Material or project outcome | Positive | Community | Verified |
| Pavement Condition Index up 10 points, 2014 to 2015 | Material or project outcome | Positive | Community | Claimed |
| $180,000 GVRD match on the parks project | Material or project outcome | Positive | Organizational | Verified |
| Delegates gained civic knowledge, contacts, volunteering intent | Capacity built | Positive | Individual, Interpersonal | Verified |
| 86% of voters, 93% of delegates want PB to continue | Relationships and trust | Positive | Individual, Community | Verified |
| Restored pride and trust in the post-bankruptcy City | Relationships and trust | Positive | Community, Cultural | Claimed |
| New two-way channel between residents and City Hall | Relationships and trust | Positive | Interpersonal, Organizational | Testified |
| Residents treat part of the budget as theirs to shape | Mental model emerged | Positive | Individual, Cultural | Testified |
| Council approved every winning slate, Cycles 1 to 6 | Institutional or policy change | Positive | Organizational, Societal | Verified |
| City built in-house PB staff and grant procedures | Capacity built | Positive | Organizational | Verified |
| Demand for Steering Committee seats rose | Capacity built | Positive | Community, Organizational | Verified |
| Cycle 2 vetting outcry nearly derailed the vote | Relationships and trust | Negative | Interpersonal, Organizational | Testified |
| Five Cycle 1 projects unfinished after two years | Material or project outcome | Negative | Community, Organizational | Verified |
| Help the Homeless: $588,000 unspent 18 months on | Material or project outcome | Negative | Community | Verified |
| Three Cycle 1 projects redesigned to satisfy public-funds law | Behavior or practice change | Mixed or unintended | Organizational | Verified |
| Street maintenance came to lean on PB allocations | Institutional or policy change | Mixed or unintended | Organizational | Testified |
| Assembly cost per attendee fell from $27 to $9 | Behavior or practice change | Positive | Organizational | Verified |
| National awards and press (Putnam 2014, Harvard Top 10 2015) | Narrative or cultural shift | Positive | Organizational, Societal | Verified |
| Other cities sought the model; SF supervisor set aside $100,000 | Narrative or cultural shift | Positive | Societal | Testified |
Turnout held where other US processes fell: 3,917 voters in Cycle 1 (3.4 percent of population, 6 percent of adults, against 1.3 percent in Chicago and 1.9 percent in New York), 3,750 in Cycle 2, 3,098 in Cycle 3, 4,216 in Cycle 4 and a peak of 5,205 in Cycle 5; the City counted over 5,000 residents engaged in Cycle 1 and over 15,000 across three cycles. The vote favored citywide, broad-benefit projects: 12 projects for $3.28 million in Cycle 1 (streets $550,000, lighting, parks at 13 sites, STEAM labs, scholarships, community gardens, small business grants, spay and neuter, senior center, Boys and Girls Club gym, 150 cameras), 8 for $2.44 million in Cycle 2 (led by Help the Homeless and $1 million of repaving), 5 for $1 million in Cycle 3 (two youth programs, a waterfront park, iPads for after-school programs, school roads), 4 in Cycle 4 (streets, 9-1-1 dispatch equipment, parks, pet neutering), all 10 ballot proposals in Cycle 5 with the last partially funded, and 9 of 12 in Cycle 6 (police radios $270,000, bike and street safety $300,000, seven services from foster youth to Meals on Wheels). Streets won every cycle, and by Cycle 5 Public Works credited PB money for a 10-point rise in pavement condition and a regional award. Participants' own gains were measured in Cycle 1: delegates knew more people afterwards, were likelier to volunteer and answered civic questions better, and 86 percent of voters and 93 percent of delegates wanted PB to continue. The costs showed in delivery: with thin vetting in Cycle 1 some projects took a year to contract, five were incomplete two years later, scholarships, business grants and the spay clinic had to be redesigned as open application and voucher schemes to avoid gifting public funds, and the top Cycle 2 project, Help the Homeless, had spent nothing 18 months after approval because its partner lacked capacity and half the budget assumed county money that never came. Trust effects are the least measured: the City's reports and ballots assert restored pride and a new forum for productive exchange, Chapin's interviewees felt the public was more receptive, and the Cycle 2 vetting episode shows how quickly that goodwill could turn.
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